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Kings vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, March 19

Fri, Mar 19 · 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

104-121

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

8% win SACwin TOR 92%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin17.6

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Friday, March 19 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 92% chance to win and projects a 104-121 score (Kings – Raptors), about 225 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Raptors W1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 12% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Raptors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Raptors start with a clear edge. The model projects Raptors 121 – 104 Kings, a margin of about 17.6 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / SAC -10.1 per game

+15.1

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRaptors played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Raptors

+17.6

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

73%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

12%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACTOR

110.2

Points scored / game

115.4

122.1

Points allowed / game

109.5

44.5 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

30.0 %

3-point %

30.4 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

73.1 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

45.8

22.8

Assists / game

27.3

6.8

Steals / game

14.3

2.5

Blocks / game

5.5

14.3

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 8% · TOR 92%

ESPN BPI

SAC 11% · TOR 89%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		TOR
0-4	Record	3-1
110.2	Points scored / game	115.4
122.1	Points allowed / game	109.5
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
L4	Current streak	W1
0-4	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.