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Warriors vs Wizards prediction NBA · Saturday, March 27

Sat, Mar 27 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

118-113

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

65% win GSwin WSH 35%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin4.6

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Saturday, March 27 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 65% chance to win and projects a 118-113 score (Warriors – Wizards), about 231 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Wizards L2, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Warriors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Wizards 113 – 118 Warriors, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / GS -0.8 per game

-6.9

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Wizards

-4.6

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Warriors win by 10+

33%

Stat comparison Current season

GSWSH

115.5

Points scored / game

113.1

116.4

Points allowed / game

122.2

45.0 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

36.9 %

3-point %

28.5 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

82.2 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

25.6

Assists / game

25.8

9.6

Steals / game

7.4

3.8

Blocks / game

5.6

16.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 65% · WSH 35%

ESPN BPI

GS 62% · WSH 38%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		WSH
2-3	Record	2-3
115.5	Points scored / game	113.1
116.4	Points allowed / game	122.2
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W2	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.