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Wizards vs Warriors prediction NBA · Thursday, March 4

Thu, Mar 4 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-120

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

23% win WSHwin GS 77%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin9.2

Projected total231

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Thursday, March 4 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 77% chance to win and projects a 111-120 score (Wizards – Warriors), about 231 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Warriors W2, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Warriors dominate this matchup. The model projects Warriors 120 – 111 Wizards, a margin of about 9.2 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / WSH -7.7 per game

+6.9

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Warriors

+9.2

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

48%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

24%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHGS

113.1

Points scored / game

115.5

122.2

Points allowed / game

116.4

48.0 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

28.5 %

3-point %

36.9 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

83.1 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

43.8

25.8

Assists / game

25.6

7.4

Steals / game

9.6

5.6

Blocks / game

3.8

13.6

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 23% · GS 77%

ESPN BPI

WSH 26% · GS 74%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		GS
2-3	Record	2-3
113.1	Points scored / game	115.5
122.2	Points allowed / game	116.4
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
L2	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.