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Spurs vs Pistons prediction NBA · Saturday, March 27

Sat, Mar 27 · 3:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · Prime Video

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

111-114

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

41% win SAwin DET 59%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin2.7

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Saturday, March 27 at 3:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 59% chance to win and projects a 111-114 score (Spurs – Pistons), about 225 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Pistons W1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Pistons are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pistons 114 – 111 Spurs, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / SA +6.6 per game

-0.1

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Pistons

+2.7

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

28%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Spurs win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

SADET

118.9

Points scored / game

115.4

111.1

Points allowed / game

107.8

46.0 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

37.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

78.3 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

46.8

28.2

Assists / game

27.0

9.8

Steals / game

8.0

6.6

Blocks / game

7.2

12.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 41% · DET 59%

ESPN BPI

SA 53% · DET 47%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

SA		DET
3-2	Record	4-1
118.9	Points scored / game	115.4
111.1	Points allowed / game	107.8
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W3	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.