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Pistons vs Spurs prediction NBA · Tuesday, November 17

Tue, Nov 17 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · NBC

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

112-114

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

44% win DETwin SA 56%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin1.9

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Tuesday, November 17 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 56% chance to win and projects a 112-114 score (Pistons – Spurs), about 225 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Spurs W3, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Spurs 114 – 112 Pistons, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The Pistons need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / DET +6.5 per game

+0.1

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Spurs

+1.9

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pistons win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

DETSA

115.4

Points scored / game

118.9

107.8

Points allowed / game

111.1

45.9 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

37.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

74.4 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

45.0

27.0

Assists / game

28.2

8.0

Steals / game

9.8

7.2

Blocks / game

6.6

15.6

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 44% · SA 56%

ESPN BPI

DET 36% · SA 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		SA
4-1	Record	3-2
115.4	Points scored / game	118.9
107.8	Points allowed / game	111.1
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W1	Current streak	W3
4-1	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.