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76ers vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Friday, March 26

Fri, Mar 26 · 10:00 PM ETModa Center · NBA TV, KUNP 16, BlazerVision
31% win PHIwin POR 69%
FavoritePOR
Projected margin6.3
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Friday, March 26 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 69% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (76ers – Trail Blazers), about 228 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Trail Blazers, but the 76ers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Trail Blazers 117 – 111 76ers, a margin of about 6.3 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR +3.0 / PHI +0.7 per game
+2.2
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
InjuriesPOR: 2 out, 1 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable
+1.8
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
+6.3

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
38%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
76ers win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIPOR
114.4
Points scored / game
118.2
113.5
Points allowed / game
114.7
42.8 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
32.6 %
3-point %
38.9 %
35.0
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
77.5 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
42.2
Rebounds / game
46.3
24.6
Assists / game
30.7
9.8
Steals / game
8.3
5.6
Blocks / game
2.7
12.6
Turnovers / game
13.3

Players to watch

76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
PHI
WNY106-100WCLE114-106WMIL127-116LDET106-93WIND114-109
POR
WSAC110-98LGS128-118WPHX124-83WSAC128-120WLAL136-129

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
PHI 31% · POR 69%
ESPN BPI
PHI 46% · POR 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHIPOR
4-1Record3-0
114.4Points scored / game118.2
113.5Points allowed / game114.7
+0.7Adjusted margin / game+3.0
W1Current streakW3
4-1Last 10 games3-0
2-0 roadHome / road record1-0 home
45-37 (-0.2)Last season42-40 (-0.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Philadelphia 76ers Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut
Tacko Fall COut
Dominick Barlow FOut
Ariel Hukporti COut
Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut
Shaedon Sharpe GOut
Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.