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Bucks vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, March 26

Fri, Mar 26 · 10:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

111-117

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

31% win MILwin PHX 69%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin6.0

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Friday, March 26 at 10:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 69% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Bucks – Suns), about 228 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Suns L1, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 117 – 111 Bucks, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / MIL -6.4 per game

+5.0

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Suns

+6.0

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Bucks win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

MILPHX

111.4

Points scored / game

111.9

119.0

Points allowed / game

113.6

44.9 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

34.0 %

3-point %

31.9 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

71.6 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

39.7

24.6

Assists / game

25.3

5.8

Steals / game

8.7

4.0

Blocks / game

5.3

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 31% · PHX 69%

ESPN BPI

MIL 30% · PHX 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		PHX
1-4	Record	1-2
111.4	Points scored / game	111.9
119.0	Points allowed / game	113.6
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L1	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.