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Suns vs Bucks prediction NBA · Friday, December 18

Fri, Dec 18 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, MyMi, Bucks App

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

114-113

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

55% win PHXwin MIL 45%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin1.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Friday, December 18 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 55% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Suns – Bucks), about 228 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Bucks L1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Bucks 113 – 114 Suns, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / PHX -1.4 per game

-5.0

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Bucks

-1.4

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Suns win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXMIL

111.9

Points scored / game

111.4

113.6

Points allowed / game

119.0

45.6 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

31.9 %

3-point %

34.0 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

73.9 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

49.8

25.3

Assists / game

24.6

8.7

Steals / game

5.8

5.3

Blocks / game

4.0

14.0

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 55% · MIL 45%

ESPN BPI

PHX 62% · MIL 39%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		MIL
1-2	Record	1-4
111.9	Points scored / game	111.4
113.6	Points allowed / game	119.0
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L1	Current streak	L1
1-2	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.