Clippers vs Thunder prediction NBA · Friday, March 26
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Friday, March 26 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 78% chance to win and projects a 105-114 score (Clippers – Thunder), about 219 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Thunder L1, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Jalen Williams (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 114 – 105 Clippers, a margin of about 9.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 219 points. Expect a tighter, lower-scoring game. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs +0.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
LACOKC
Players to watch
Clippers
Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / gameDarius GarlandG · #106.5assists
Rui HachimuraF · #286.0reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
LAC
122-110W
121-96L
125-117L
108-101L103-87OKC
116-104W96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| LAC | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 112.0 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 111.5 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| +0.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| L3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 1-3 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 42-40 (+1.1) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Clippers
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.