Raptors vs Warriors prediction NBA · Thursday, March 25
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Thursday, March 25 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 69% chance to win and projects a 116-109 score (Raptors – Warriors), about 225 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Warriors W2, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Raptors, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 109 – 116 Raptors, a margin of about 6.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORGS
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W119-114
GS
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 115.5 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 116.4 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -0.8 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 37-45 (-0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.