Warriors vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, December 18
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Friday, December 18 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 77% chance to win and projects a 109-118 score (Warriors – Raptors), about 226 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Raptors W1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 118 – 109 Warriors, a margin of about 9.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSTOR
Players to watch
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L117-94W
129-99
GS
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| GS | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.5 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| -0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | W1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.