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Bulls vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Thursday, March 25

Thu, Mar 25 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

112-122

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

21% win CHIwin MEM 79%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin10.2

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Thursday, March 25 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 79% chance to win and projects a 112-122 score (Bulls – Grizzlies), about 234 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies and the Bulls played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies start with a clear edge. The model projects Grizzlies 122 – 112 Bulls, a margin of about 10.2 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Grizzlies and the Bulls played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / CHI -7.2 per game

+5.4

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

+2.5

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+10.2

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

51%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Bulls win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHIMEM

115.6

Points scored / game

115.2

124.1

Points allowed / game

117.3

42.1 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

27.6 %

3-point %

39.1 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

78.6 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

50.0

24.4

Assists / game

25.0

9.0

Steals / game

6.3

4.8

Blocks / game

6.3

17.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 21% · MEM 79%

ESPN BPI

CHI 34% · MEM 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		MEM
1-4	Record	4-0
115.6	Points scored / game	115.2
124.1	Points allowed / game	117.3
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L3	Current streak	W4
1-4	Last 10 games	4-0
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.