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Grizzlies vs Bulls prediction NBA · Saturday, March 13

Sat, Mar 13 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

120-115

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

67% win MEMwin CHI 33%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin5.6

Projected total235

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Saturday, March 13 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 67% chance to win and projects a 120-115 score (Grizzlies – Bulls), about 235 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Bulls L3, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Grizzlies, but the Bulls have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Bulls 115 – 120 Grizzlies, a margin of about 5.6 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / MEM -1.8 per game

-5.4

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-2.5

Expected marginfor Bulls

-5.6

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Grizzlies win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMCHI

115.2

Points scored / game

115.6

117.3

Points allowed / game

124.1

45.3 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

39.1 %

3-point %

27.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

82.8 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

44.8

25.0

Assists / game

24.4

6.3

Steals / game

9.0

6.3

Blocks / game

4.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 67% · CHI 33%

ESPN BPI

MEM 56% · CHI 44%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		CHI
4-0	Record	1-4
115.2	Points scored / game	115.6
117.3	Points allowed / game	124.1
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
W4	Current streak	L3
4-0	Last 10 games	1-4
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.