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Nuggets vs Nets prediction NBA · Thursday, March 25

Thu, Mar 25 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · NBA TV, DAZN (YES)

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

116-111

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

67% win DENwin BKN 33%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin5.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Thursday, March 25 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 67% chance to win and projects a 116-111 score (Nuggets – Nets), about 227 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Nets L4, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nets 111 – 116 Nuggets, a margin of about 5.3 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / DEN +2.6 per game

-11.0

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNuggets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Nets

-5.3

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Nuggets win by 10+

35%

Stat comparison Current season

DENBKN

119.2

Points scored / game

108.0

116.2

Points allowed / game

117.9

45.8 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

32.8 %

3-point %

36.7 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

79.6 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

43.5

26.0

Assists / game

24.0

10.0

Steals / game

10.0

4.8

Blocks / game

4.0

15.3

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 67% · BKN 33%

ESPN BPI

DEN 70% · BKN 30%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		BKN
2-2	Record	0-4
119.2	Points scored / game	108.0
116.2	Points allowed / game	117.9
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
W1	Current streak	L4
2-2	Last 10 games	0-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.