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Nets vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Monday, March 1

Mon, Mar 1 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · DAZN (YES)

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

109-118

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

21% win BKNwin DEN 79%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin9.9

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Monday, March 1 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 79% chance to win and projects a 109-118 score (Nets – Nuggets), about 227 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets start with a clear edge. The model projects Nuggets 118 – 109 Nets, a margin of about 9.9 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -8.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / BKN -8.4 per game

+11.0

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNuggets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+9.9

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

50%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Nets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

BKNDEN

108.0

Points scored / game

119.2

117.9

Points allowed / game

116.2

42.9 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

36.7 %

3-point %

32.8 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

76.6 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

44.5

24.0

Assists / game

26.0

10.0

Steals / game

10.0

4.0

Blocks / game

4.8

17.5

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 21% · DEN 79%

ESPN BPI

BKN 21% · DEN 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		DEN
0-4	Record	2-2
108.0	Points scored / game	119.2
117.9	Points allowed / game	116.2
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L4	Current streak	W1
0-4	Last 10 games	2-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.