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Spurs vs Pacers prediction NBA · Thursday, March 25

Thu, Mar 25 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

119-108

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

83% win SAwin IND 17%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin11.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Thursday, March 25 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 83% chance to win and projects a 119-108 score (Spurs – Pacers), about 227 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Pacers L2, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers and the Spurs played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Pacers 108 – 119 Spurs, a margin of about 11.8 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers and the Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / SA +6.6 per game

-11.4

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Pacers

-11.8

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Spurs win by 10+

56%

Stat comparison Current season

SAIND

118.9

Points scored / game

113.2

111.1

Points allowed / game

118.8

46.0 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

34.6 %

3-point %

31.2 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

78.3 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

44.0

28.2

Assists / game

29.4

9.8

Steals / game

6.4

6.6

Blocks / game

4.8

12.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 83% · IND 17%

ESPN BPI

SA 67% · IND 33%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		IND
3-2	Record	2-3
118.9	Points scored / game	113.2
111.1	Points allowed / game	118.8
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
W3	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.