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Pacers vs Spurs prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 6

Wed, Jan 6 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

106-122

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

10% win INDwin SA 90%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin16.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Wednesday, January 6 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 90% chance to win and projects a 106-122 score (Pacers – Spurs), about 228 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Spurs W3, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 14% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Tobias Harris (Spurs)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 122 – 106 Pacers, a margin of about 16.4 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / IND -4.7 per game

+11.4

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Spurs

+16.4

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

69%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

14%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDSA

113.2

Points scored / game

118.9

118.8

Points allowed / game

111.1

47.1 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

31.2 %

3-point %

34.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

72.7 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

45.0

29.4

Assists / game

28.2

6.4

Steals / game

9.8

4.8

Blocks / game

6.6

14.8

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 10% · SA 90%

ESPN BPI

IND 22% · SA 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		SA
2-3	Record	3-2
113.2	Points scored / game	118.9
118.8	Points allowed / game	111.1
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L2	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.