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Rockets vs Pistons prediction NBA · Thursday, March 25

Thu, Mar 25 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

109-113

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

38% win HOUwin DET 62%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin3.9

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Thursday, March 25 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 62% chance to win and projects a 109-113 score (Rockets – Pistons), about 222 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Pistons W1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons and the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pistons are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pistons 113 – 109 Rockets, a margin of about 3.9 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons and the Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / HOU +6.7 per game

-0.2

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Pistons

+3.9

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

31%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Rockets win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUDET

117.5

Points scored / game

115.4

109.7

Points allowed / game

107.8

51.7 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

40.4 %

3-point %

37.9 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

84.7 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

28.2

Assists / game

27.0

10.2

Steals / game

8.0

6.0

Blocks / game

7.2

15.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 38% · DET 62%

ESPN BPI

HOU 46% · DET 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		DET
5-0	Record	4-1
117.5	Points scored / game	115.4
109.7	Points allowed / game	107.8
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W5	Current streak	W1
5-0	Last 10 games	4-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.