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Pistons vs Rockets prediction NBA · Saturday, January 16

Sat, Jan 16 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston)

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

112-111

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

53% win DETwin HOU 47%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin0.9

Projected total222

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Saturday, January 16 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 53% chance to win and projects a 112-111 score (Pistons – Rockets), about 222 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Rockets W5, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Rockets 111 – 112 Pistons, a margin of about 0.9 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / DET +6.5 per game

+0.2

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRockets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Rockets

-0.9

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

19%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pistons win by 10+

23%

Stat comparison Current season

DETHOU

115.4

Points scored / game

117.5

107.8

Points allowed / game

109.7

45.9 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

37.9 %

3-point %

40.4 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

74.4 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.0

Assists / game

28.2

8.0

Steals / game

10.2

7.2

Blocks / game

6.0

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 53% · HOU 47%

ESPN BPI

DET 45% · HOU 55%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DET		HOU
4-1	Record	5-0
115.4	Points scored / game	117.5
107.8	Points allowed / game	109.7
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W1	Current streak	W5
4-1	Last 10 games	5-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.