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Bucks vs Clippers prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 24

Wed, Mar 24 · 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · ClipperVision, MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

110-115

LA Clippers

1-3 · home

36% win MILwin LAC 64%

FavoriteLAC

Projected margin4.6

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Wednesday, March 24 at 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Clippers a 64% chance to win and projects a 110-115 score (Bucks – Clippers), about 225 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Clippers L3, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers) and Jordan Miller (Clippers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Clippers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Clippers 115 – 110 Bucks, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Clippers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+0.4 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Clippers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAC +0.4 / MIL -6.4 per game

+6.8

Home-court advantageClippers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAC: 5 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.5

Expected marginfor Clippers

+4.6

Scenarios

Clippers win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Bucks win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

MILLAC

111.4

Points scored / game

112.0

119.0

Points allowed / game

111.5

44.9 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

34.0 %

3-point %

39.0 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

35.3

71.6 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

40.8

24.6

Assists / game

25.0

5.8

Steals / game

12.5

4.0

Blocks / game

4.5

16.8

Turnovers / game

23.0

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 36% · LAC 64%

ESPN BPI

MIL 36% · LAC 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		LAC
1-4	Record	1-3
111.4	Points scored / game	112.0
119.0	Points allowed / game	111.5
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	+0.4
L1	Current streak	L3
1-4	Last 10 games	1-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	42-40 (+1.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.