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Clippers vs Bucks prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7

Thu, Jan 7 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App, ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

114-113

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

50% win LACwin MIL 50%

FavoriteLAC

Projected margin0.0

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Thursday, January 7 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Clippers a 50% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Clippers – Bucks), about 225 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Bucks L1, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers) and Jordan Miller (Clippers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Bucks 113 – 114 Clippers, a margin of about 0.0 points in favor of the Clippers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +0.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / LAC +0.4 per game

-6.8

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+4.5

Expected marginfor Bucks

-0.0

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Clippers win by 10+

21%

Stat comparison Current season

LACMIL

112.0

Points scored / game

111.4

111.5

Points allowed / game

119.0

45.9 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

39.0 %

3-point %

34.0 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

78.6 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

49.8

25.0

Assists / game

24.6

12.5

Steals / game

5.8

4.5

Blocks / game

4.0

23.0

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 50% · MIL 50%

ESPN BPI

LAC 54% · MIL 46%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAC		MIL
1-3	Record	1-4
112.0	Points scored / game	111.4
111.5	Points allowed / game	119.0
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L3	Current streak	L1
1-3	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.