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Hawks vs Kings prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 24

Wed, Mar 24 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

122-110

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

84% win ATLwin SAC 16%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin12.3

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Wednesday, March 24 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 84% chance to win and projects a 122-110 score (Hawks – Kings), about 231 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Kings L4, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Kings 110 – 122 Hawks, a margin of about 12.3 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / ATL +2.7 per game

-12.8

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Kings

-12.3

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Hawks win by 10+

57%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLSAC

119.0

Points scored / game

110.2

115.8

Points allowed / game

122.1

46.9 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

34.8 %

3-point %

30.0 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

72.8 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

41.5

32.2

Assists / game

22.8

10.2

Steals / game

6.8

3.6

Blocks / game

2.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 84% · SAC 16%

ESPN BPI

ATL 80% · SAC 20%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		SAC
2-3	Record	0-4
119.0	Points scored / game	110.2
115.8	Points allowed / game	122.1
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L3	Current streak	L4
2-3	Last 10 games	0-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.