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Kings vs Hawks prediction NBA · Sunday, February 14

Sun, Feb 14 · 1:00 PM ETState Farm Arena

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

106-124

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

7% win SACwin ATL 93%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin18.5

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Sunday, February 14 at 1:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 93% chance to win and projects a 106-124 score (Kings – Hawks), about 230 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Hawks L3, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 11% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Hawks 124 – 106 Kings, a margin of about 18.5 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / SAC -10.1 per game

+12.8

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backKings played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Hawks

+18.5

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

75%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

11%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACATL

110.2

Points scored / game

119.0

122.1

Points allowed / game

115.8

44.5 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

30.0 %

3-point %

34.8 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

73.1 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

41.4

22.8

Assists / game

32.2

6.8

Steals / game

10.2

2.5

Blocks / game

3.6

14.3

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 7% · ATL 93%

ESPN BPI

SAC 13% · ATL 87%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		ATL
0-4	Record	2-3
110.2	Points scored / game	119.0
122.1	Points allowed / game	115.8
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
L4	Current streak	L3
0-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.