Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Rockets vs Knicks prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 24

Wed, Mar 24 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

111-112

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

50% win HOUwin NY 50%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin0.0

Projected total223

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Wednesday, March 24 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 50% chance to win and projects a 111-112 score (Rockets – Knicks), about 223 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Knicks W2, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Knicks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Knicks 112 – 111 Rockets, a margin of about 0.0 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / HOU +6.7 per game

-2.8

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backKnicks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Knicks

+0.0

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Rockets win by 10+

21%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUNY

117.5

Points scored / game

114.5

109.7

Points allowed / game

110.0

51.7 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

40.4 %

3-point %

35.9 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

84.7 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

48.2

28.2

Assists / game

26.8

10.2

Steals / game

7.2

6.0

Blocks / game

4.4

15.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 50% · NY 50%

ESPN BPI

HOU 49% · NY 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		NY
5-0	Record	2-3
117.5	Points scored / game	114.5
109.7	Points allowed / game	110.0
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W5	Current streak	W2
5-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.