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Knicks vs Rockets prediction NBA · Monday, December 14

Mon, Dec 14 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston)

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-112

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

46% win NYwin HOU 54%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin1.4

Projected total223

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Monday, December 14 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 54% chance to win and projects a 111-112 score (Knicks – Rockets), about 223 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Rockets W5, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Rockets 112 – 111 Knicks, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / NY +3.8 per game

+2.8

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRockets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Rockets

+1.4

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Knicks win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

NYHOU

114.5

Points scored / game

117.5

110.0

Points allowed / game

109.7

42.2 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

35.9 %

3-point %

40.4 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

75.8 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

44.8

26.8

Assists / game

28.2

7.2

Steals / game

10.2

4.4

Blocks / game

6.0

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 46% · HOU 54%

ESPN BPI

NY 44% · HOU 56%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		HOU
2-3	Record	5-0
114.5	Points scored / game	117.5
110.0	Points allowed / game	109.7
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W2	Current streak	W5
2-3	Last 10 games	5-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.