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Spurs vs Celtics prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 24

Wed, Mar 24 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · ESPN

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-113

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

45% win SAwin BOS 55%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin1.6

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Wednesday, March 24 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 55% chance to win and projects a 112-113 score (Spurs – Celtics), about 225 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Celtics W3, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Celtics 113 – 112 Spurs, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / SA +6.6 per game

-0.0

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Celtics

+1.6

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Spurs win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

SABOS

118.9

Points scored / game

116.1

111.1

Points allowed / game

108.3

46.0 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

34.6 %

3-point %

38.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

78.3 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

44.3

28.2

Assists / game

27.8

9.8

Steals / game

9.0

6.6

Blocks / game

3.8

12.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 45% · BOS 55%

ESPN BPI

SA 57% · BOS 43%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

SA		BOS
3-2	Record	3-1
118.9	Points scored / game	116.1
111.1	Points allowed / game	108.3
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W3	Current streak	W3
3-2	Last 10 games	3-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.