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Grizzlies vs Pacers prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 24

Wed, Mar 24 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

118-113

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

64% win MEMwin IND 36%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin4.6

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Wednesday, March 24 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 64% chance to win and projects a 118-113 score (Grizzlies – Pacers), about 231 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Pacers L2, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Grizzlies, but the Pacers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pacers 113 – 118 Grizzlies, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / MEM -1.8 per game

-3.0

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 4 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.0

Expected marginfor Pacers

-4.6

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Grizzlies win by 10+

33%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMIND

115.2

Points scored / game

113.2

117.3

Points allowed / game

118.8

45.3 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

39.1 %

3-point %

31.2 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

82.8 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

44.0

25.0

Assists / game

29.4

6.3

Steals / game

6.4

6.3

Blocks / game

4.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 64% · IND 36%

ESPN BPI

MEM 35% · IND 65%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MEM		IND
4-0	Record	2-3
115.2	Points scored / game	113.2
117.3	Points allowed / game	118.8
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
W4	Current streak	L2
4-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.