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Pacers vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM, DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-120

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

23% win INDwin MEM 77%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin9.2

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Wednesday, November 4 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 77% chance to win and projects a 111-120 score (Pacers – Grizzlies), about 231 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Grizzlies dominate this matchup. The model projects Grizzlies 120 – 111 Pacers, a margin of about 9.2 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / IND -4.7 per game

+3.0

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · IND: 4 out, 1 questionable

+4.0

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+9.2

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

48%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

24%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDMEM

113.2

Points scored / game

115.2

118.8

Points allowed / game

117.3

47.1 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

31.2 %

3-point %

39.1 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

72.7 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

50.0

29.4

Assists / game

25.0

6.4

Steals / game

6.3

4.8

Blocks / game

6.3

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 23% · MEM 77%

ESPN BPI

IND 38% · MEM 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		MEM
2-3	Record	4-0
113.2	Points scored / game	115.2
118.8	Points allowed / game	117.3
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L2	Current streak	W4
2-3	Last 10 games	4-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.