Raptors vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 23
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Tuesday, March 23 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 52% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Raptors – Trail Blazers), about 227 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Trail Blazers 113 – 114 Raptors, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Robert Williams III or Chris Youngblood (and 1 other). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORPOR
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| TOR | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-0 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.