Trail Blazers vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, March 5
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Friday, March 5 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 69% chance to win and projects a 110-116 score (Trail Blazers – Raptors), about 226 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Raptors W1, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Trail Blazers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Raptors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Raptors 116 – 110 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 6.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORTOR
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| POR | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| W3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.