Pelicans vs Knicks prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 23
At a glance
The New York Knicks (2-3) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Tuesday, March 23 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 83% chance to win and projects a 108-120 score (Pelicans – Knicks), about 229 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Knicks W2, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Knicks dominate this matchup. The model projects Knicks 120 – 108 Pelicans, a margin of about 12.0 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NONY
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsKnicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91NY
106-100L
107-103L
111-102W
111-97W
133-127
NY
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | NY | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 114.5 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 110.0 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.8 |
| L4 | Current streak | W2 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 53-29 (+6.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Knicks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.