Knicks vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 16
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Wednesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 72% chance to win and projects a 118-111 score (Knicks – Pelicans), about 229 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Knicks start with a clear edge. The model projects Pelicans 111 – 118 Knicks, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NYNO
Players to watch
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
NY
106-100L
107-103L
111-102W
111-97W
133-127NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91
NY
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NY | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| 114.5 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 110.0 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +3.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W2 | Current streak | L4 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 53-29 (+6.3) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Knicks
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.