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Hawks vs Warriors prediction NBA · Monday, March 22

Mon, Mar 22 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

117-114

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

58% win ATLwin GS 42%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin2.4

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Monday, March 22 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 58% chance to win and projects a 117-114 score (Hawks – Warriors), about 231 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Warriors W2, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Warriors 114 – 117 Hawks, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / ATL +2.7 per game

-3.5

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Warriors

-2.4

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hawks win by 10+

27%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLGS

119.0

Points scored / game

115.5

115.8

Points allowed / game

116.4

46.9 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

34.8 %

3-point %

36.9 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

72.8 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

43.8

32.2

Assists / game

25.6

10.2

Steals / game

9.6

3.6

Blocks / game

3.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 58% · GS 42%

ESPN BPI

ATL 41% · GS 59%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

ATL		GS
2-3	Record	2-3
119.0	Points scored / game	115.5
115.8	Points allowed / game	116.4
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
L3	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.