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Warriors vs Hawks prediction NBA · Friday, January 15

Fri, Jan 15 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-119

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

29% win GSwin ATL 71%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin7.0

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Friday, January 15 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 71% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Warriors – Hawks), about 231 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Hawks L3, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hawks, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Hawks 119 – 112 Warriors, a margin of about 7.0 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / GS -0.8 per game

+3.5

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Hawks

+7.0

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Warriors win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

GSATL

115.5

Points scored / game

119.0

116.4

Points allowed / game

115.8

45.0 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

36.9 %

3-point %

34.8 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

82.2 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

41.4

25.6

Assists / game

32.2

9.6

Steals / game

10.2

3.8

Blocks / game

3.6

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 29% · ATL 71%

ESPN BPI

GS 43% · ATL 57%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		ATL
2-3	Record	2-3
115.5	Points scored / game	119.0
116.4	Points allowed / game	115.8
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W2	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.