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Pistons vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Monday, March 22

Mon, Mar 22 · 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · NBCSN

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

113-114

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

49% win DETwin MIN 51%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin0.4

Projected total226

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Monday, March 22 at 9:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 51% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Pistons – Timberwolves), about 226 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Timberwolves 114 – 113 Pistons, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The Pistons need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / DET +6.5 per game

-1.3

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+0.4

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pistons win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

DETMIN

115.4

Points scored / game

118.7

107.8

Points allowed / game

112.6

45.9 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

37.9 %

3-point %

38.4 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

74.4 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

51.6

27.0

Assists / game

27.0

8.0

Steals / game

9.2

7.2

Blocks / game

4.4

15.6

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 49% · MIN 51%

ESPN BPI

DET 40% · MIN 60%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		MIN
4-1	Record	3-2
115.4	Points scored / game	118.7
107.8	Points allowed / game	112.6
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W1	Current streak	L2
4-1	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.