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Timberwolves vs Pistons prediction NBA · Sunday, January 24

Sun, Jan 24 · 6:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

111-115

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

37% win MINwin DET 63%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin4.2

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Sunday, January 24 at 6:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 63% chance to win and projects a 111-115 score (Timberwolves – Pistons), about 226 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Pistons W1, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Timberwolves have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pistons 115 – 111 Timberwolves, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / MIN +5.2 per game

+1.3

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Pistons

+4.2

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Timberwolves win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

MINDET

118.7

Points scored / game

115.4

112.6

Points allowed / game

107.8

47.3 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

38.4 %

3-point %

37.9 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

62.7 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.0

Assists / game

27.0

9.2

Steals / game

8.0

4.4

Blocks / game

7.2

16.2

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 37% · DET 63%

ESPN BPI

MIN 46% · DET 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		DET
3-2	Record	4-1
118.7	Points scored / game	115.4
112.6	Points allowed / game	107.8
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
L2	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.