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Hornets vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Monday, March 22

Mon, Mar 22 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM, DAZN CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

111-114

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

39% win CHAwin MEM 61%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin3.4

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Monday, March 22 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 61% chance to win and projects a 111-114 score (Hornets – Grizzlies), about 226 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Grizzlies, but the Hornets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Grizzlies 114 – 111 Hornets, a margin of about 3.4 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / CHA +1.1 per game

-2.9

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+4.0

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+3.4

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

30%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Hornets win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAMEM

111.6

Points scored / game

115.2

110.3

Points allowed / game

117.3

41.7 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

30.6 %

3-point %

39.1 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

85.2 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

50.0

20.6

Assists / game

25.0

6.8

Steals / game

6.3

5.2

Blocks / game

6.3

19.0

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 39% · MEM 61%

ESPN BPI

CHA 50% · MEM 50%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHA		MEM
3-2	Record	4-0
111.6	Points scored / game	115.2
110.3	Points allowed / game	117.3
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L1	Current streak	W4
3-2	Last 10 games	4-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.