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Grizzlies vs Hornets prediction NBA · Monday, November 23

Mon, Nov 23 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

112-113

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

46% win MEMwin CHA 54%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin1.2

Projected total226

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Monday, November 23 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 54% chance to win and projects a 112-113 score (Grizzlies – Hornets), about 226 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Hornets L1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hornets 113 – 112 Grizzlies, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / MEM -1.8 per game

+2.9

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.0

Expected marginfor Hornets

+1.2

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

24%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Grizzlies win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMCHA

115.2

Points scored / game

111.6

117.3

Points allowed / game

110.3

45.3 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

39.1 %

3-point %

30.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

82.8 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

47.4

25.0

Assists / game

20.6

6.3

Steals / game

6.8

6.3

Blocks / game

5.2

15.5

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 46% · CHA 54%

ESPN BPI

MEM 39% · CHA 61%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		CHA
4-0	Record	3-2
115.2	Points scored / game	111.6
117.3	Points allowed / game	110.3
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
W4	Current streak	L1
4-0	Last 10 games	3-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.