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Kings vs Bulls prediction NBA · Monday, March 22

Mon, Mar 22 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

112-120

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

26% win SACwin CHI 74%

FavoriteCHI

Projected margin8.0

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Monday, March 22 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bulls a 74% chance to win and projects a 112-120 score (Kings – Bulls), about 232 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Bulls L3, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Bulls start with a clear edge. The model projects Bulls 120 – 112 Kings, a margin of about 8.0 points in favor of the Bulls and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bulls' offense (115.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / SAC -10.1 per game

+3.0

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

Back-to-backKings played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.1

Expected marginfor Bulls

+8.0

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

44%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACCHI

110.2

Points scored / game

115.6

122.1

Points allowed / game

124.1

44.5 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

30.0 %

3-point %

27.6 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

73.1 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

44.8

22.8

Assists / game

24.4

6.8

Steals / game

9.0

2.5

Blocks / game

4.8

14.3

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 26% · CHI 74%

ESPN BPI

SAC 31% · CHI 69%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		CHI
0-4	Record	1-4
110.2	Points scored / game	115.6
122.1	Points allowed / game	124.1
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
L4	Current streak	L3
0-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.