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Bulls vs Kings prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7

Thu, Jan 7 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

118-116

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

56% win CHIwin SAC 44%

FavoriteCHI

Projected margin1.8

Projected total234

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Thursday, January 7 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bulls a 56% chance to win and projects a 118-116 score (Bulls – Kings), about 234 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Kings L4, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Kings 116 – 118 Bulls, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Bulls and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bulls' offense (115.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / CHI -7.2 per game

-3.0

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

-1.1

Expected marginfor Kings

-1.8

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

17%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bulls win by 10+

26%

Stat comparison Current season

CHISAC

115.6

Points scored / game

110.2

124.1

Points allowed / game

122.1

42.1 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

27.6 %

3-point %

30.0 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

78.6 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

41.5

24.4

Assists / game

22.8

9.0

Steals / game

6.8

4.8

Blocks / game

2.5

17.8

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 56% · SAC 44%

ESPN BPI

CHI 59% · SAC 41%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		SAC
1-4	Record	0-4
115.6	Points scored / game	110.2
124.1	Points allowed / game	122.1
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L3	Current streak	L4
1-4	Last 10 games	0-4
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.