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Rockets vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Monday, March 22

Mon, Mar 22 · 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · DAZN CLE

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

114-115

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

47% win HOUwin CLE 53%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin0.8

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Monday, March 22 at 7:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 53% chance to win and projects a 114-115 score (Rockets – Cavaliers), about 230 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Cavaliers 115 – 114 Rockets, a margin of about 0.8 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / HOU +6.7 per game

-3.6

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 1 out, 0 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+0.8

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Rockets win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUCLE

117.5

Points scored / game

119.6

109.7

Points allowed / game

116.0

51.7 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

40.4 %

3-point %

36.7 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

84.7 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

47.0

28.2

Assists / game

26.3

10.2

Steals / game

8.8

6.0

Blocks / game

7.5

15.8

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 47% · CLE 53%

ESPN BPI

HOU 54% · CLE 46%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

HOU		CLE
5-0	Record	3-1
117.5	Points scored / game	119.6
109.7	Points allowed / game	116.0
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W5	Current streak	W3
5-0	Last 10 games	3-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.