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Cavaliers vs Rockets prediction NBA · Sunday, January 3

Sun, Jan 3 · 7:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

111-117

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

33% win CLEwin HOU 67%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin5.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Sunday, January 3 at 7:00 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 67% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Cavaliers – Rockets), about 228 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Rockets W5, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Rockets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Rockets 117 – 111 Cavaliers, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / CLE +3.0 per game

+3.6

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCavaliers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · CLE: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Rockets

+5.4

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

36%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Cavaliers win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEHOU

119.6

Points scored / game

117.5

116.0

Points allowed / game

109.7

46.8 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

36.7 %

3-point %

40.4 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

79.3 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

44.8

26.3

Assists / game

28.2

8.8

Steals / game

10.2

7.5

Blocks / game

6.0

17.3

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 33% · HOU 67%

ESPN BPI

CLE 36% · HOU 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		HOU
3-1	Record	5-0
119.6	Points scored / game	117.5
116.0	Points allowed / game	109.7
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W3	Current streak	W5
3-1	Last 10 games	5-0
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.