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Spurs vs 76ers prediction NBA · Sunday, March 21

Sun, Mar 21 · 7:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · NBC

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-110

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

68% win SAwin PHI 32%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin5.7

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Sunday, March 21 at 7:30 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 68% chance to win and projects a 116-110 score (Spurs – 76ers), about 227 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: 76ers W1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects 76ers 110 – 116 Spurs, a margin of about 5.7 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / SA +6.6 per game

-5.9

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor 76ers

-5.7

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Spurs win by 10+

37%

Stat comparison Current season

SAPHI

118.9

Points scored / game

114.4

111.1

Points allowed / game

113.5

46.0 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

34.6 %

3-point %

32.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

78.3 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

42.2

28.2

Assists / game

24.6

9.8

Steals / game

9.8

6.6

Blocks / game

5.6

12.8

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 68% · PHI 32%

ESPN BPI

SA 57% · PHI 43%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		PHI
3-2	Record	4-1
118.9	Points scored / game	114.4
111.1	Points allowed / game	113.5
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
W3	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.