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76ers vs Spurs prediction NBA · Thursday, March 11

Thu, Mar 11 · 7:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center · Prime Video

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

108-118

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

20% win PHIwin SA 80%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin10.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Thursday, March 11 at 7:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 80% chance to win and projects a 108-118 score (76ers – Spurs), about 227 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Spurs W3, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 118 – 108 76ers, a margin of about 10.3 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / PHI +0.7 per game

+5.9

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Spurs

+10.3

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

51%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

76ers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHISA

114.4

Points scored / game

118.9

113.5

Points allowed / game

111.1

42.8 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

32.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

77.5 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

45.0

24.6

Assists / game

28.2

9.8

Steals / game

9.8

5.6

Blocks / game

6.6

12.6

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 20% · SA 80%

ESPN BPI

PHI 33% · SA 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		SA
4-1	Record	3-2
114.4	Points scored / game	118.9
113.5	Points allowed / game	111.1
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W1	Current streak	W3
4-1	Last 10 games	3-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.