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Nuggets vs Heat prediction NBA · Sunday, March 21

Sun, Mar 21 · 6:00 PM ETKaseya Center

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

115-119

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

37% win DENwin MIA 63%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin4.0

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Sunday, March 21 at 6:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 63% chance to win and projects a 115-119 score (Nuggets – Heat), about 234 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Heat W1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Heat, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Heat 119 – 115 Nuggets, a margin of about 4.0 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / DEN +2.6 per game

-3.2

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNuggets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+3.3

Expected marginfor Heat

+4.0

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Nuggets win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

DENMIA

119.2

Points scored / game

118.6

116.2

Points allowed / game

119.2

45.8 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

32.8 %

3-point %

31.7 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

79.6 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

42.8

26.0

Assists / game

27.0

10.0

Steals / game

8.4

4.8

Blocks / game

5.4

15.3

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 37% · MIA 63%

ESPN BPI

DEN 49% · MIA 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		MIA
2-2	Record	1-4
119.2	Points scored / game	118.6
116.2	Points allowed / game	119.2
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W1	Current streak	W1
2-2	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.