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Heat vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Sunday, March 14

Sun, Mar 14 · 7:30 PM ETBall Arena · NBC

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

116-119

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

43% win MIAwin DEN 57%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin2.2

Projected total235

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Sunday, March 14 at 7:30 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 57% chance to win and projects a 116-119 score (Heat – Nuggets), about 235 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Nuggets 119 – 116 Heat, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / MIA -0.6 per game

+3.2

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-3.3

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+2.2

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Heat win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

MIADEN

118.6

Points scored / game

119.2

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

31.7 %

3-point %

32.8 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

71.7 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

27.0

Assists / game

26.0

8.4

Steals / game

10.0

5.4

Blocks / game

4.8

14.2

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 43% · DEN 57%

ESPN BPI

MIA 39% · DEN 61%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		DEN
1-4	Record	2-2
118.6	Points scored / game	119.2
119.2	Points allowed / game	116.2
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W1	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	2-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.