Trail Blazers vs Suns prediction NBA · Sunday, March 21
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Sunday, March 21 at 5:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 54% chance to win and projects a 115-113 score (Trail Blazers – Suns), about 228 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Suns L1, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Suns 113 – 115 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORPHX
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsSuns
Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / gameDevin BookerG · #155.3assists
Khaman MaluachC · #107.3reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129PHX
123-103L
119-116L
124-83W131-122L
125-114Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| POR | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 1-2 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 111.9 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 113.6 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.4 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 1-2 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 45-37 (+1.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.