Raptors vs Jazz prediction NBA · Sunday, March 21
At a glance
The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Sunday, March 21 at 5:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 81% chance to win and projects a 121-110 score (Raptors – Jazz), about 231 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Jazz L3, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Jazz 110 – 121 Raptors, a margin of about 11.0 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORUTAH
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsJazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / gameKeyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99UTAH
123-103W
120-119L
132-123L110-105L
117-111 OT
UTAH
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 116.1 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 124.3 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -7.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | L3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-3 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 22-60 (-8.4) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Jazz
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.