Jazz vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, January 8
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Friday, January 8 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 87% chance to win and projects a 108-122 score (Jazz – Raptors), about 229 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Raptors W1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Raptors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 122 – 108 Jazz, a margin of about 14.0 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
UTAHTOR
Players to watch
Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / gameKeyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
UTAH
123-103W
120-119L
132-123L110-105L
117-111 OTTOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99
UTAH
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| UTAH | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| 116.1 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 124.3 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| -7.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| L3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 1-4 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 22-60 (-8.4) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Jazz
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.