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Kings vs Nets prediction NBA · Sunday, March 21

Sun, Mar 21 · 3:00 PM ETBarclays Center · NBA TV, DAZN (YES)

Sacramento Kings

0-5 · away

Projected score

111-116

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

32% win SACwin BKN 68%

FavoriteBKN

Projected margin5.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Sunday, March 21 at 3:00 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nets a 68% chance to win and projects a 111-116 score (Kings – Nets), about 227 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Nets L4, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nets 116 – 111 Kings, a margin of about 5.8 points in favor of the Nets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nets' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / SAC -10.1 per game

+1.7

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Nets

+5.8

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

37%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Kings win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

SACBKN

110.2

Points scored / game

108.0

122.1

Points allowed / game

117.9

44.5 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

30.0 %

3-point %

36.7 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

73.1 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

43.5

22.8

Assists / game

24.0

6.8

Steals / game

10.0

2.5

Blocks / game

4.0

14.3

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103L132-120

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 32% · BKN 68%

ESPN BPI

SAC 32% · BKN 68%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		BKN
0-4	Record	0-4
110.2	Points scored / game	108.0
122.1	Points allowed / game	117.9
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
L4	Current streak	L4
0-4	Last 10 games	0-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.